Nifty :: Only one and half hour change market direction.. Nifty made an Thrusting line pattern with short term indicator bounce from oversold level, indicate corrective up swing start from strong support 4692, and may be Nifty reach target in between 4900 to 5100 in coming week.. For 8th Feb. watch first strong resistance zone 4815 to 4832..Our strategy due to Thrusting pattern, buy only in deep (S.L 4692) sell at high (S.L 4834/4922)..If Nifty open gap up on Monday and face resistance near our strong resistance zone then wait for some minor intraday correction and then enter with strictly S.L 4692.. Resistance for up move at 4795/4805/4834/4852/4922.. Supports at 4732/4720/4712/4692/4655…
Supports: 4734 and 4710 is the zone for intra bulls to protect. Though as long 4790 is not taken out decisively, it'll be riskier to buy on dips from 1-2 days positional perspective. Below that 4685-4640 can be the targets before any considerable bounce.
Resistances: 4786/90 is the main hurdle. Any weakness around that zone can be bad news for bulls. Above that the immediate intra day trend can take a small reversal towards discussed level 4825/30-4885-4920/35.
The regular readers do understand that the markets corrected more than anticipated, trading even below the expected 4900 level which has now become a strong resistance to scale up. The FII are engrossing the profits made all these days in sectors that affect the most in future like banking, motors, pharma and refinery sectors that out performed and they rule the Nifty anyway.
The economy is heading for a testing time with out the stimulus package. The US economy is going to do well as the world is now recognized the social sector spending for a sustainable dignity of life. So the spending in health care and the alternative energy will through big opportunity to us.
We are now focusing on infrastructure building hand in hand with social sector spending through NREGS and other rural economy spending. The coming budget will be more rural infra and farm spending which proved a big success to our economy. So no more cuts to corporate facilities or no more favours to corporate demands. The bulging fiscal deficit will be addressed through sale of PSUs and the governing is doing business for long time. So it will help the markets to float above these levels for some time.
The concern in food inflation now crack the foundations of the markets due to more stringent actions to controle the money circulation and inflationary rise no longer desirable to emerging markets. As a whole, the markets may not have pre-budget rally due the local and the global concerns.
The deep cut is not over for the markets so long it trades below the 4830 level. The bulls were captivated in the lower band of 4950 and 4830 level. The strong cues needed to pierce the resistance to release the market from the bear grip.
The big boy Reliance has suddenly dropped its strength to move up once it dropped below 1090 level (pls. read earlier postings). Now the markets will have something to offer to bulls only when the RIL trades above 1020 level and Nifty above 4885 level. The ICICI has to trade above 835 levels, a minimum of 821-25 is required. The markets are now dependant on the budgetary supports and the cut in corporate tax can trigger the Bull Run which is possible way to encourage investments for plough back method.
The economy is heading for a testing time with out the stimulus package. The US economy is going to do well as the world is now recognized the social sector spending for a sustainable dignity of life. So the spending in health care and the alternative energy will through big opportunity to us.
We are now focusing on infrastructure building hand in hand with social sector spending through NREGS and other rural economy spending. The coming budget will be more rural infra and farm spending which proved a big success to our economy. So no more cuts to corporate facilities or no more favours to corporate demands. The bulging fiscal deficit will be addressed through sale of PSUs and the governing is doing business for long time. So it will help the markets to float above these levels for some time.
The concern in food inflation now crack the foundations of the markets due to more stringent actions to controle the money circulation and inflationary rise no longer desirable to emerging markets. As a whole, the markets may not have pre-budget rally due the local and the global concerns.
The deep cut is not over for the markets so long it trades below the 4830 level. The bulls were captivated in the lower band of 4950 and 4830 level. The strong cues needed to pierce the resistance to release the market from the bear grip.
The big boy Reliance has suddenly dropped its strength to move up once it dropped below 1090 level (pls. read earlier postings). Now the markets will have something to offer to bulls only when the RIL trades above 1020 level and Nifty above 4885 level. The ICICI has to trade above 835 levels, a minimum of 821-25 is required. The markets are now dependant on the budgetary supports and the cut in corporate tax can trigger the Bull Run which is possible way to encourage investments for plough back method.
(A short term upside possibility)
Nifty has been falling from 5309 for the past 20 days without a meaningful rally or rest. Positive divergences have started showing in some individual stocks as well as the two major indices - Nifty & Bank Nifty. Some stocks have already shown sharp bounce off their lows.
What is in store..? More immediate lows possible..?? When is a confirmation of a "Pause" is known..?? How's the risk-reward status now..?
A short term long play is possible.
If Nifty is resisted @ 4790 - 4815-4835, another low or closer to the lows is possible before the reversal sets in. A mid series rally for a few days..!!
A close above the 5 day ema would be the first confirmation of that pause.
Risk-reward will be to the Bulls favour if a dip comes on Monday afternoon or Tuesday morning.
Remember larger trend is down-Month, Week and Day. Day is oversold without any positive divergence.
Only a positive divergence in Hourly time frame which can last for a few days. Volume action during this expected rally will confirm a reversal in daily.
Stop Loss may be kept below 200sma @ 4640 or 4615 for the short term Longs.
Nifty has been falling from 5309 for the past 20 days without a meaningful rally or rest. Positive divergences have started showing in some individual stocks as well as the two major indices - Nifty & Bank Nifty. Some stocks have already shown sharp bounce off their lows.
What is in store..? More immediate lows possible..?? When is a confirmation of a "Pause" is known..?? How's the risk-reward status now..?
A short term long play is possible.
If Nifty is resisted @ 4790 - 4815-4835, another low or closer to the lows is possible before the reversal sets in. A mid series rally for a few days..!!
A close above the 5 day ema would be the first confirmation of that pause.
Risk-reward will be to the Bulls favour if a dip comes on Monday afternoon or Tuesday morning.
Remember larger trend is down-Month, Week and Day. Day is oversold without any positive divergence.
Only a positive divergence in Hourly time frame which can last for a few days. Volume action during this expected rally will confirm a reversal in daily.
Stop Loss may be kept below 200sma @ 4640 or 4615 for the short term Longs.
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